Description

This analysis provides a forecast of MSTR prices using a Seasonal ARIMA model with Box-Cox transformation. The forecast includes different scenarios:

The confidence levels used are 68%, 95%, and 99.7%, which means there is a corresponding probability that the actual price will fall within the Bear and Bull case range for each confidence level.

The purpose of this model is to help investors understand potential future price movements and make informed decisions based on different market scenarios.

Bear_0.997 Bear_0.95 Bear_0.68 Base Bull_0.68 Bull_0.95 Bull_0.997
2025-11-23 120.101717 138.506130 159.510051 185.408984 216.695796 253.537836 300.600170
2025-11-30 100.447196 124.698574 155.067344 196.483271 252.430048 326.772363 435.447384
2025-12-07 85.457186 111.696757 146.794978 198.335904 274.133860 384.948384 566.063616
2025-12-14 75.851568 103.293386 142.004852 202.438872 297.974606 449.861028 724.733430
2025-12-21 67.534696 95.041071 135.551140 202.074336 313.866494 505.045826 884.305105
2025-12-28 63.960069 92.976835 137.583689 214.691918 352.753517 607.920716 1168.054616
2026-01-04 60.331528 90.209626 137.901376 224.208791 387.941159 713.374297 1501.525705
2026-01-11 56.848961 87.150325 137.169082 231.529209 420.368878 822.473000 1894.895069
2026-01-18 53.223138 83.376961 134.633538 234.956445 445.646648 923.723212 2321.683413
2026-01-25 49.581450 79.145591 130.704459 234.962583 463.618387 1013.650472 2768.672475
2026-02-01 45.661443 74.019847 124.531900 229.485524 468.254071 1072.213850 3154.285111
2026-02-08 42.199147 69.369964 118.707581 223.815018 471.231439 1127.576195 3567.136574
2026-02-15 39.037128 65.073195 113.271731 218.581393 475.284146 1190.858000 4073.680290
2026-02-22 38.390855 65.332211 116.662389 233.171442 532.769812 1435.241039 5579.125109
2026-03-01 36.518581 63.098805 114.831666 235.658002 559.274345 1594.876442 6883.950283
2026-03-08 35.068961 61.534162 114.171825 240.775219 594.575212 1802.119290 8741.027202
2026-03-15 33.255837 59.092676 111.404855 240.331412 613.734725 1960.724899 10560.587330
2026-03-22 32.909416 59.532825 114.826977 255.983223 686.783322 2375.373747 15097.649516
2026-03-29 32.243112 59.254800 116.635873 267.819488 751.818000 2802.703341 21018.492842
2026-04-05 31.404720 58.540419 117.375975 276.941730 811.018141 3249.030339 28823.464062
2026-04-12 30.296916 57.160191 116.428622 281.217758 854.609440 3652.188656 37992.130761
2026-04-19 29.006674 55.284661 114.122786 281.225422 882.496622 3993.543051 48183.874432
2026-04-26 27.415561 52.638782 109.724732 274.393509 881.802260 4166.798296 56511.298957